Monday Performance Marketing Briefing 2025 WK 49

Key Stories

  1. BFCM Online Sales Surge (Retail Drive)
    Online Black Friday sales hit $11.8B (+9.1% YoY), with $3B driven directly by AI recommendations. "Personal Care" was a top-performing category for AI-driven conversions.
    WHY IT MATTERS:
    Confirms that while traffic may be expensive, AI-powered personalization (product recs, chatbots) is critical for capturing high-intent beauty shoppers this week.

  2. In-Store Beauty Traffic Drop (Retail Next)
    In-store foot traffic for "Health & Beauty" dropped 2.1% to 9.6% on Black Friday, depending on the data source. Shoppers prioritized purposeful, value-driven trips over "impulse" browsing.
    WHY IT MATTERS:
    Physical retail is losing the "discovery" battle to digital this Q4. Beauty brands must rely on digital ads to drive specific in-store pickup intent rather than generic footfall.

  3. Sephora's Non-Tiered Cyber Week (ELLE)
    Sephora launched a "Cyber Week" sale (Nov 29–Dec 4) offering flat 50% discounts on specific SKUs (Urban Decay, Fenty) rather than their usual tiered "VIB" percentages.
    WHY IT MATTERS:
    A strategic pivot to compete with brand-direct sites. By removing the "membership tier" barrier, they are aggressively recapturing the general discount hunter.

  4. Gen Alpha "Safety" Scrutiny (Japan Today)
    Global media (Japan Today, The Independent) renewed scrutiny this weekend on "Sephora Kids," specifically targeting brands selling multi-step anti-aging routines to pre-teens.
    WHY IT MATTERS:
    Regulatory and PR risk is peaking. Brands with "fun" packaging must strictly audit their messaging to avoid accusations of exploiting young skin health.

Emerging Trends

  1. "Toasty" Makeup Aesthetic (Nelly Rodi)
    A shift from "Clean Girl" minimalism to warm, textured, autumn-heavy visuals (bronzes, terracottas, cozy lighting).
    EARLY SIGNALS:
    Identified by trend forecasters as the dominant November/December look on TikTok, replacing "cold/clinical" visuals.
    POTENTIAL IMPACT:
    Creative Opportunity: Pivot ad visuals to warmer, "cozy" saturation levels to match current organic feed aesthetics.

  2. AI "Digital Twin" Production (Cosmetics Business)
    Brands like Medik8 are using AI to generate "digital twins" of products, allowing them to swap backgrounds/lighting instantly without reshoots.
    EARLY SIGNALS:
    Medik8 reported cutting content creation time from weeks to days.
    POTENTIAL IMPACT:
    Production Speed:     Allows for rapid iteration of "holiday" vs "new year" backgrounds on the same hero product shot.

  3. Silent "Visual-Only" Ads (Billo)
    "Voiceless melancholic product use" and "Pure visuals" are outperforming talk-heavy UGC in some segments.
    EARLY SIGNALS:
    Ad analysis shows fast-paced, sound-off friendly clips are winning attention spans tired of "hook-heavy" screaming.
    POTENTIAL IMPACT:
    Creative Testing:     Test a "Silent ASMR" version of your top performing product demo

Conversations Happening Now

  1. Media buyers are saying “Meta Ads are "Broken" Again”, according to Reddit. Consensus: Buyers report severe volatility, CPM spikes ($500+), and budget "burning" over the BFCM weekend. Strategy: Many are pausing scaling attempts and sticking to low-budget retargeting only.

  2. Analysts are talking about Brand Loyalty vs. Item Loyalty. Shoppers are searching for specific viral items (e.g., "Rhode Glazing Milk") rather than browsing brand pages. Brand loyalty is secondary to "Item Loyalty" this season.

Actions For Beauty Marketers

  • Trust Blended ROAS, Not Meta: With widely reported bugs and CPM spikes in Ads Manager this weekend, do not make rash optimization decisions based on platform data. Look at your Shopify total revenue vs. total spend.

  • Pivot Creative to "Warmth": The "Toasty" aesthetic is the winner for December. Swap out cool-toned, clinical creative for warm, bronze, "cozy" lighting in your static ads.

  • Audit "Kids" Messaging: If you have products appealing to Gen Alpha, strictly avoid "anti-aging" or "routine" language. Pivot to "fun," "safe," and "barrier support" to avoid the active PR backlash zone.

  • Leverage AI Recommendations: If you haven't already, enable AI-driven "You May Also Like" widgets on your cart page. $3B in BFCM sales came from these AI nudges.

  • Sephora is Competing on Price: Be aware that Sephora is matching or beating direct-to-consumer offers on key brands (Fenty, Urban Decay). Ensure your offer has a unique value add (GWP, bundle) that Sephora cannot match.

Monday InsightsPennock Team